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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."